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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Off to the races. (Read 2584 times)
stevea
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Off to the races.
Aug 28th, 2015 at 7:35am
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I'd like to start a thread to discuss the election, but NOT political
topics (this is not contradictory).  So a thread that discusses why X
might win or lose, but not about whether mass deportation is
possible or moral (for example).

PLEASE do not derail with discussions supporting or detracting from
political positions, or arguments about what is moral or right or
aggression.  Those are for other threads.

In a sense I find discussing elections abstractly, like a horse race,
to be cynical, but it also helps clarify my thinking on this process.
  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #1 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 7:38am
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Currently we have these candidates and potential candidated.
I've ranked them (my subjective judgement) for the following factors.

Experience: (yes/no scale)
- Executive (ceo, govenor)
- Private Sector (significant: excludes law,gov't,military,religion,academia)
- Fed-Political
- State-Political
<E,P,F,S,age>


JebBush,       Y,Y,N,Y,62
BenCarson,      N,Y,N,N,63
ChrisChristie,      Y,N,Y,Y,52
Ted Cruz,      N,N,Y,Y,44
CarlyFiorina,      Y,Y,N,N,60
JimGilmore,      Y,N,N,Y,65
LindseyGraham,      N,N,Y,Y,60
MikeHuckabee,      Y,N,N,Y,60
BobbyJindal,      Y,N,Y,Y,44
JohnKasich,      Y,Y,Y,Y,63
GeorgePataki,      Y,N,N,Y,70
RandPaul,      N,Y,Y,N,52
RickPerry,      Y,Y,N,Y,65
MarcoRubio,      N,N,Y,Y,44
RickSantorum,      N,N,Y,N,57
DonaldTrump,      Y,Y,N,N,69
ScottWalker, Y,N,N,Y,47

LincolnChafee,      Y,Y,Y,Y,62
HillaryClinton,      N,N,Y,N,69
MartinO'Malley,      Y,N,N,Y,52
BernieSanders,      N,N,Y,N,73
Jim Webb,      N,N,Y,N,69
JoeBiden,      N,N,Y,N,72
AlGore,            N,N,Y,Y,67
ElizabethWarren, N,N,Y,N,65
JohnKerry,      N,N,Y,N,71

Jill Stein, N,Y,N,N,65
« Last Edit: Aug 28th, 2015 at 8:38am by stevea »  
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Jeff
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #2 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 8:20am
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Running a campaign for the U.S. Senate and being a Senator doesn't count as executive experience?

I guess I don't like the categories you've chosen, and I don't really think they have much to do with why or why not someone might be elected. I don't think they've had much, if any bearing, in the past.

If they do, John Kasich ought to be a shoo in... or Lincoln Chafee.
  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #3 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 8:33am
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Quinnipiac (Aug 27) shows several interesting trends.

Amongst Republican Leaners ...

Trump, Carson & Kasich, Fiorina gaining support.
Bush, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Perry Jindal Huckabee - losing support.
The others roughy neutral.  With Pataki, Gilmore, Graham & Jindal at near zero recently.

On the negative side,

Trump has very high negatives, flattening out ~28%.
Paul, Christie and Graham have quite high negatives ~14%.
Gilmore, Huckabee, Jindal, Santorum, Perry, Pataki hae increasing negatives.

======

Among Dem leaners ...

Bidens on the increase, Hallary is sliding downward, BUT surprisingly Hillaries negatives are only ~11%.   IOW Dem antipathy toward Hillary is about like Rep antipathy toward Huckabee.   Ifind that remarkable.

======

If private sector experience counts, the Dems have only Chaffee (who spent a few years shoeing horses, a farrier!).  IOW zilch.

If executive experience counts, the Dems have former Governor's O'Malley of Maryland  & Chaffee of Rhode Island.

Liz Warren has lots of non-governmental, non-law experience in academia.

---------

My personal opinion is that some of the Rep <2%'ers will drop out soon.   The bottom of the Rep heap are in order from worst to top ...
Pataki, Graham, Gilmore, Perry, Santorum, Paul.
Of course w/ enough money and splinter support, a few might hold out till Spring.  Perry has money problem, Pataki & Gilmore have popularity problems, Graham has high negatives.   Santorum & Paul have some sort of support, and both seem *potentially* willing to make the long trek, even w/ no chance of winning.

On the Dem side we're more likely to see new additions to the field.   Webb, O'Malley, Chaffee seem to have low name recognition, and will likely fall by the 1st Primary.  Clinton & Sanders will be joined by others, perhaps Biden.  I expect Biden could take votes from the other two pretty well, tho'he has the age issue(as does Sanders).   IN fact is we cross off Chaffee & O'Malley, the youngest potential Dem is Liz Warren at 65yo !

======

I'll predict that this list will disappear by the 2nd primary state.
Pataki, Gilmore, Graham, Perry. Jindal
O'Malley, Webb, Chaffee.
Stein (green party)

Among candidates who have no chance, but *may* trudge on ...
Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, Trump.
I believe Trump is unelectable due too too high negatives w/in the smaller party and lack of independent support.

This would whittle the field down to ...
JebBush, BenCarson, Ted Cruz, CarlyFiorina, JohnKasich, MarcoRubio, ScottWalker.
HillaryClinton, BernieSanders, JoeBiden, AlGore, ElizabethWarren, JohnKerry.

  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #4 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 8:37am
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Jeff wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 8:20am:
Running a campaign for the U.S. Senate and being a Senator doesn't count as executive experience?


No it doesnt. Managing your own career and being part of a legislative panel is NOT executive experience. Yes, any political campaign might involve some limited delegation of authority, or it might just mean letting your handlers decide.

I DO count state governorships and biz CEOs as executive experience. If YOU make the decisions and take all blame for performance, you're an exec.


Quote:
I guess I don't like the categories you've chosen, and I don't really think they have much to do with why or why not someone might be elected. I don't think they've had much, if any bearing, in the past.

If they do, John Kasich ought to be a shoo in... or Lincoln Chafee.


It was only meant to be a list of factors worthy of consideration, NOT some "shoo in" guide. Hey - maybe wait a few minutes before flinging the brown balogna.

As an aside, I think Kasich is one of the best the Reps have to offer, and tho' Chaffee horse-shoeing experience isn't quite the sort of private sector work I'd prefer to see, he several steps above some of the Dems that poll a lot better.   Kasich seems to have a real chance to win, Chaffe - not so much.

  
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Jeff
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #5 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 9:08am
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OK, sorry.

Hey, Paul might win when people discover he's really the only candidate in favor of limited government! Even though he's not an "electable moderate".
  
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #6 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 9:10am
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Can you add Military experience, IQ, Political Family Ties?


Also curious to why ... on this forum of all places, you have excluded Libertarian hopefuls? Do you even know who in up or how the LP process works?
  
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #7 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 9:15am
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How about an understanding of limited Constitutional government and the role of the Chief Executive?

And subscription to some theory of economics that hasn't been repeatedly disproved?

Having been a governor is meaningless without examining what kind of governor one was.
  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #8 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 9:45am
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Jeff wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 9:08am:
OK, sorry.

Hey, Paul might win when people discover he's really the only candidate in favor of limited government! Even though he's not an "electable moderate".


'K.

Paul's support (among Rep leaning) dropped from 11% last year to 8% in April, to 2% now ! His negatives went from 9% to 14%. For reasons I really don't understand, the trend is that Paul is losing support fast and gaining enemies. In the "unfavorable" opinion by all registered voters, Trump has 54%, Clinton 50%, Christie at 45% and Paul is fourth at 41%. Even Cruz & Santorum have lower unfavorables and the Left hates those two.

I'd agree he has at least some good principles in the mix, but he's on a trajectory to drop out of the race soon.


Crystallas wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 9:10am:
Can you add Military experience, IQ, Political Family Ties?


That would be great. Military experience isn't too hard. Family ties is a bit sketchy. If say Gilmores grnda once ran for city council - do we count that ? How do we find that ?

IQ - it's very difficult. Often political detractors find some microscopic evidence and impute thatthe guy is low IQ. Other times it's puffed up by advocates. I mean it was really interesting reading that one on the list average in the first years of school were D- type work, but then he turned that around once he switched majors. Is he stupid or smart but unmotivated ? If you ask The Donald - he's got the highest IQ (and he may). I don't think there is any reliable source for such IQ measures -




Quote:
Also curious to why ... on this forum of all places, you have excluded Libertarian hopefuls? Do you even know who in up or how the LP process works?


I should include Gary Johnson. He's a decent guy. HOWEVER, I, and I'm sure a lot of other libertarians, don't see much value in the official LP.org party.

To some extent it's b/c real libertarians are not natural "joiners".; we're too diverse a lot. But in my case it's b/c the LP has been repeatedly hijacked by non-libertarian Pres candidates on ego trips (not Johnson), and that party has no sense of reality. They can barely get candidates to city parks council, much less city council or State House rep, but they always field a presidential candidate. It's like the awkward 12 yo trying out for the olympics- pathetic.

GaryJohnson, Y,Y,N,Y,62




  
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #9 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:09am
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stevea wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 8:33am:
Quinnipiac (Aug 27) shows several interesting trends.
Among candidates who have no chance, but *may* trudge on ...
Christie, Huckabee, Paul, Santorum, Trump.
I believe Trump is unelectable due too too high negatives w/in the smaller party and lack of independent support.

This would whittle the field down to ...
JebBush, BenCarson, Ted Cruz, CarlyFiorina, JohnKasich, MarcoRubio, ScottWalker.

As you observe, Trump's support is still trending upward. Could you walk me through the process of how the clear frontrunner will drop out of the primary, without assuming that his support will decline?

And if you imagine it will decline, your basis for that is what?
  
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