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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Off to the races. (Read 2583 times)
stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #20 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 6:29pm
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As you observe, Trump's support is still trending upward. Could you walk me through the process of how the clear frontrunner will drop out of the primary, without assuming that his support will decline?

And if you imagine it will decline, your basis for that is what?


You need to hone your critical reading skills.

I did not say (here)  Trump will "will drop out of the primary".  I said he is unelectable (as Pres) but might trudge on through the primary.  That's simple math.

The Reps are a little over 35% of the voting population, and swing voters a little less than 30%.    Already 28% of Reps say they will never vote for Trump.  And almost 50% of swing voters can't stand him (about half the swing go Dem usually).  So the most optimistic scenario for Candidate Trump is that he gets 72% of the Rep vote and 50% of the Swing vote - and that comes to 39% of total voters, so a land-slide defeat (unless the Dems split - unlikely this time IMO).

====

Tho' Trump could take the Rep candidacy, I personally find it extremely unlikely (mostly for reasons that don't belong in this thread).


  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #21 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 6:40pm
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Jeff wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 1:16pm:
BTW, I don't think Gary Johnson is running, and Joe Biden beats Trump in a head to head race. Lovely.


Yes, GaryJ is running and hopes t get the LP.org pres candidacy.

https://www.facebook.com/garyjohnsonforpresident

I don't know all of GaryJ's position, but on the surface appears to be a real libertarian.   [As opposed to Bob Barr, who was a disgruntled Rep/Conservative who ran LP.org over the cliff].

Nonetheless, in this horserace, GaryJ is likely to end up at <2% of the popular vote ,and 0% of the electoral.



  
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Jeff
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #22 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 8:43pm
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stevea wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 6:40pm:
Yes, GaryJ is running and hopes t get the LP.org pres candidacy.

https://www.facebook.com/garyjohnsonforpresident

I don't know all of GaryJ's position, but on the surface appears to be a real libertarian.   [As opposed to Bob Barr, who was a disgruntled Rep/Conservative who ran LP.org over the cliff].

Nonetheless, in this horserace, GaryJ is likely to end up at <2% of the popular vote ,and 0% of the electoral.




Yes, the Libertarian Party has not been effective in promoting liberty or it's candidates.
Johnson is libertarian and would make a great President. So what? Like you said, it isn't happening.

How does the Republican Party actually pick it's candidates? The same process the Central Committee of the Democratic Party uses to pick theirs?
  
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #23 - Aug 31st, 2015 at 7:37pm
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stevea wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 6:29pm:
I said he is unelectable (as Pres) but might trudge on through the primary.  That's simple math.

The Reps are a little over 35% of the voting population, and swing voters a little less than 30%.    Already 28% of Reps say they will never vote for Trump.  And almost 50% of swing voters can't stand him (about half the swing go Dem usually).  So the most optimistic scenario for Candidate Trump

Why do you think these implications will hold for the general election?
  
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Jeff
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #24 - Sep 1st, 2015 at 7:59am
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Why do you think these implications will hold for the general election?

People prefer Joe Biden to Trump. Perhaps the Republican Party wants someone like Biden to be President?
  
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #25 - Sep 3rd, 2015 at 1:27pm
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252661-trump-hits-30-perc...

According to a Monmouth University survey released on Thursday, Trump takes 30 percent support nationally, a four-point gain over the same survey from before the first GOP debate.

Ben Carson is a distant second place in the poll, taking 18 percent support. The retired neurosurgeon has risen sharply in the polls over the past month. He was at only 5 percent support in the same poll from early August.

The rest of the Republican field isn’t even in the same ballpark.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) take 8 percent support each, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (Florida) at 5 percent, and former businesswoman Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee at 4 percent a piece.

Scott Walker is in freefall, falling into 8th place with only 3 percent support. The Wisconsin governor was in third place with 11 percent support in the same poll from before the first Republican debate.

Chris Christie, John Kasich and Sen. Rand Paul each sit at 2 percent support.

Trump leads in every ideological category. He’s the preferred choice among Tea Party supporters, and Republicans who identify as very conservative, somewhat conservative, and liberal.

The businessman and reality TV star also leads among men, women, young people and old people.

Trump has completely reversed his favorability rating, which in June was only 20 percent positive and 55 percent negative. He’s now at 59 percent positive and 29 percent negative.

-----------------------------------

Looks more and more like the GOP is just going to have to accept Trump as its nominee.
  
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Jeff
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #26 - Sep 3rd, 2015 at 2:49pm
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/252661-trump-hits-30-perc...
Looks more and more like the GOP is just going to have to accept Trump as its nominee.

Even though, head to head, Joe Biden beats him? That sounds like a real mistake for the GOP. Again.
  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #27 - Sep 5th, 2015 at 3:02am
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Why do you think these implications will hold for the general election?


Why do you imagine they will change ?  You are predicting some change - so you must tell us why

==

Even tho' Hillary is a festering leper awaiting possible federal indictment - she STILL has far lower negatives amongst Dems than Trump does among Reps !! (like 9% vs 28%!!!).

Trump has been gaining in Rightish opposition as fast as  support, and that is a losing position for Trump and for the Reps *if* he is their candidate (which I strongly doubt).  Trump can't win w/ 40% of Reps against him - and that is precisely where he seems headed.

--

I saw his speech earlier today (saying he would support any Rep candidate) , and his blow-hardiness was toned down several notches.  He seems to have done a LITTLE homework on a few issues.  Bottom line - this self-aggrandizing "genius" negotiator lost a negotiation against half-wit Rance Priebus, and Trump was busy trying to spin it as a victory.  Pathetic.


  
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #28 - Sep 9th, 2015 at 5:29pm
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stevea wrote on Sep 5th, 2015 at 3:02am:
Why do you imagine they will change ?  You are predicting some change - so you must tell us why

Because his poll numbers are still climbing and his negatives still falling.

And because I don't think it is realistic to assume that "would never vote for" categories will hold in the general election with an avowed socialist.
  
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stevea
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Re: Off to the races.
Reply #29 - Sep 11th, 2015 at 8:16pm
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Because his poll numbers are still climbing and his negatives still falling.

And because I don't think it is realistic to assume that "would never vote for" categories will hold in the general election with an avowed socialist.



This ignores reality.  His negatives are very high (as I've documented), much higher than other candidates,  and unlike any other candidate - he has made a cottage industry of personally insulting other candidates.   It's exceedingly unlikely that all those 28% Republican Trump-haters will vote for the guy that insulted and derided their preferred candidate.

No  -he is busy creating un-heal-able divisions amongst Reps.

To be fair, Jeb Bush has higher negatives, and is unelectable for the same reason.  A lot of Reps will never vote for Jeb or Donald.

Imagine you aren't some Trump sycophant for a moment.   If say Carson or Cruz gets the nomination, then a lot of Reps who don't really care for them might switch in favor of the party candidate.    But Trump is leaving a trail of "I will never vote for that A-hole" Reps in his wake, and it's all b/c of his ego.

Trump has shown ZERO ability to conciliate and make concession to others in exchange for support.    But I don't think he has enough goodies in his bag to get even 80% of Reps to vote for him.

--

The other non-secret that Trump supporters are ignoring.  His history of policy support is horrible.  More taxes, single-payer HC, trade-isolationism, in favor of an "assault rifle" ban, wants to go to war w/ ISIS immediately,  wars of acquisition where we loot Iraq for oil.  No one should imagine Trumps statements don't violate US trade agreements and basic Laws of War that the civilized world subscribes to.   For that reason alone these look like bluster and bravado from a big-mouth wimp.

Well if you want more taxes, more pointless wars, and more trade-isolationism, more government  - Trump is ideal.  More of a neo-John-Birch-er than a libertarian, tho' he has some reasonable domestic biz ideas.
  
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