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Jack Decker
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The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Jan 11th, 2016 at 9:26pm
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It is now official.  Rand Paul will not make the next first-tier debate.  While, yes, he could come back as Chris Christie did and make the last debate before Iowa caucuses and/or he could have a fantastic underground game in Iowa and/or New Hampshire inherited from his father's presidential runs to surprise everyone with a great showing (like his father did in Iowa), more likely this is the end of the Paul campaign.  He might even "suspend" his campaign after not making the next debate.  Probably not.  Probably a fifth or worse placement in New Hampshire will be the final bullet to the head.

Now I am a strong libertarian.  I have been the Director of Advertising & Public Relations for the Libertarian Party of Dane County (Wisconsin) and even ran for my state's assembly on the LP ticket.  I gave the maximum I could give to the 2012 Ron Paul campaign.  However, I have yet to give a penny to Rand.  Why?

He got a LOT of press early in the election cycle (usually a bad sign as it tends to mean one peaks early) and even made the covers of magazines as the "most interesting candidate" of the season.  But he then made a mistake in trying to go mainstream too early.  He didn't first solidify his base: libertarians and Tea Party members.

His father drew HUGE crowds in 2008 and even more in 2012.  Like the crowds that now turn out for Trump and Sanders.  Why?  Ron played to his base ("he fed them red meat") and it turned out.  So big that other campaigns didn't have public events because they knew they couldn't draw in as many and the press would point this out to the public.  Rand hasn't drawn similar crowds.   Why? He simply is too soft-spoken to rally the troops.  He's not angry like his father.  He doesn't have fire in his belly.

Another big mistake was attacking Trump as not being a conservative.  What?!  What idiot in Rand's camp thought that would be a good idea?  Forget that Trump counter-striked and continues to do so.  Rand's supposed base was libertarians and Tea Party members.  The establishment doesn't consider them conservatives either.  Social conservatives definitely don't.  So it was odd that Rand went after Trump on this point.  Now some will say he tried to do the Pepsi/Burger King marketing strategy of attacking the leaders.  Well, that hasn't worked for Pepsi or Burger King and it didn't work for Rand.  All he did was further raise Trump's profile and didn't make a good argument why people should vote for Rand.  Did someone in Rand's camp really think telling people why they shouldn't vote for another candidate was a reason to vote for their candidate?  This was made even more insane when there were still more than 15 other candidates in the field.  Wasted campaign money.  Every single penny of it.

But what really sank Rand was and is ISIS.  When it hit, Rand was one of the casualties.  He didn't show anger.  He, again, tried to go mainstream by trying to out hawk the hawks.  He wouldn't say what no politician is willing to say and that is ISIS is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran (really a war within Islam between Sunnis and Shiites) and that we should just call a pox on both of their houses and get the Hell out of there.  "Let them kill each other!"  Yes, that isolationism would upset some people but at least it would upset them.  You would be the center of all discussion with such a "F*k 'em!" attitude and strategy.  You could point out that all the other times we did try to intervene, you only got our soldiers dead and terrorists attacking us more.  But, no, that isn't what Rand did.  He just mumbled something and then tried to be a mainstream hawk.  And that was the end of his bid for the White House this time around.

What do you think?  Is Rand's campaign dead now or do you believe he'll surprise everyone with a good showing in Iowa and/or New Hampshire?  Give your postmortem or come-back forecast.
  
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SkyChief
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #1 - Jan 11th, 2016 at 9:55pm
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Jack Decker wrote on Jan 11th, 2016 at 9:26pm:
  You could point out that all the other times we did try to intervene, you only got our soldiers dead and terrorists attacking us more.  But, no, that isn't what Rand did. 


I beg to differ.

Rand Paul is a staunch interventionist.  Another shill for the MIC.

I wouldn't classify him as a neocon,  but he clearly supports U.S. military intervention in the M.E. civil wars.

Which, politically, is a sound position, as many other clueless political hacks are also rowing an oar on that same boat.

Never compare Rand to his father.  He pales miserably.



  

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itchy spider
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #2 - Jan 11th, 2016 at 10:08pm
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The high number of Republican candidates is part of the plan in getting the Paul's out of the Party. The Republican Party will suffer plenty of RINOs. But will not tolerate much Libertarianism.


I really like the Paul's, but they tried regime change on a completely corrupt, amoral political party. The Republican party only claims libertarian principles when they don't have enough power to do something outright, through tyranny or subversion.

I think Rand will have a little bit of a chance farther down the line. When they figure out that Trump loses to Hillary in polling in the future. As corrupt and contemptible as Hillary is, the Democrats and media will circle the wagons, and 100% get on board her POTUS run if she is the nominee.
  
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itchy spider
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #3 - Jan 11th, 2016 at 10:15pm
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SkyChief wrote on Jan 11th, 2016 at 9:55pm:
Never compare Rand to his father.  He pales miserably.




My math says that If Rand is only 25% as good as his father - that makes him 123% better than the other Republican candidates.

Rand was the only Republican I would have considered voting for.
  
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stevea
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #4 - Jan 11th, 2016 at 10:58pm
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The latest news is that Rand refuses to sit at the kiddie table with Huckabee, Santorum & Fiorina.  He won't be in the debate !

In one sense I can't blame him - the religious righties have nothing to say, and Fiorina is a good debater, but she missed her chance.  It looks like the loser list.

OTOH I don't believe Rand has anything better to do than talk to ~8 million viewers, and even if he took a steaming dump on the stage he'd probably still be ahead of not showing up.

Maybe Rand has some brilliant strategy in the works, but my bet is he's committing political suicide here.    Now Ron Paul ran for president and never dropped out - even when he had zero chance and the Rep party screwed him out of a convention speech he properly deserved.   Rand dropping out before the first primary looks nutless.
--
Maybe Rand will seek the lp.org candidacy, and leave the Rep party, but it's still a suicide mission.
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The other weird thing - he attacked Fox Biz as the enemy.  If he can't get a fair hearing there he can't get on anywhere in cable news.
  
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stevea
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #5 - Jan 12th, 2016 at 12:32am
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Quote:
The high number of Republican candidates is part of the plan in getting the Paul's out of the Party. The Republican Party will suffer plenty of RINOs. But will not tolerate much Libertarianism.


If I believed in such conspiracy theories it would go like this - Rand failed to hold together RonP enthusiastic new base, so he has no value to the party.

The other point is that Cruz & Trump picked up most of TeaParty types, who are merely the fading remnants of fiscally responsible republicans - but not libertarians.

Quote:
I really like the Paul's, but they tried regime change on a completely corrupt, amoral political party. The Republican party only claims libertarian principles when they don't have enough power to do something outright, through tyranny or subversion.


Rep party principles only ever overlapped Lib't principals wrt limited government and fiscal responsibility, but the Reps gave up both of those decades ago. Recent Reps stand for nothing except "not Dem".

Quote:
I think Rand will have a little bit of a chance farther down the line. When they figure out that Trump loses to Hillary in polling in the future.


I strongly suspect that won't happen!  The pro-Trumpers have their fingers in their ears squealing "lalala" when it comes to things - like leadership or understanding the issues, and the Rep party is so needful of a win they won't impose any rationality to the populist demands.

Oddly - very oddly - the hard righties are slowly, but clearly turning to supporting Trump despite that he's an odd clod w/o credentials.  If Andrew Jackson was a hated bumpkin called "old hickory" for his character, then Trump is "old huckster" in the same mould tho' several $billion farther up the food chain and with a lot less personal accomplishment.

IOW I'm pretty sure the righties and their party will go full-bore pro-Trump, assuming he doesn't step on his own schlong and beats Cruz, despite any comparisons w/ Hillary.

The good news for the Reps is that Hillary's negatives are likely to rise considerably if/when the FBI moves on her email case (even if the justice department refuses to dispense justice again).  Also there is a good chance Trump will be able to harm and insult the Clintons (if Bill was ever a master-spinner those days are long past).

The other odd thing is that the Dems have no viable 2nd choice if Hillary is picking out a prison orange wardrobe.   Joe Biden should have run!!


Quote:
As corrupt and contemptible as Hillary is, the Democrats and media will circle the wagons, and 100% get on board her POTUS run if she is the nominee.


What if Hillary faces a  federal indictment for corruption ?  Will the Dems forgive that too ?  WHat is their alternative ?

--
It's not so obvious to me, but stats say  the hard-core Dem group has thinned out too.   The winner of the presidency NEEDS a large contingent of independents, and that doesn't smell like either Hillary or Trump.

I have a very bad feeling about this election - and Hillary as Pres is not the worst case.

  
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itchy spider
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #6 - Jan 12th, 2016 at 12:38am
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stevea wrote on Jan 11th, 2016 at 10:58pm:
Maybe Rand will seek the lp.org candidacy, and leave the Rep party, but it's still a suicide mission.
   


Republican voters only jumped on the Rand train when Libertarianism was fashionable and he was polling well.

Short of financial collapse, Libertarianism is dead to the Republican Party.
If financial collapse is in the near future, being out of the one of the two complicit parties is not a bad thing.


Maybe he can forge an alliance with Gary Johnson.
  
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SkyChief
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #7 - Jan 12th, 2016 at 1:12am
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stevea wrote on Jan 11th, 2016 at 10:58pm:
The latest news is that Rand refuses to sit at the kiddie table with Huckabee, Santorum & Fiorina.  He won't be in the debate !


   


In some bizarre way, I respect Paul's decision to bow out of the upcoming GOP debate on FOX.

Of course, this is political suicide, and puts him squarely in the drop-out category of the GOP hopefuls. His current 5% poll stats will quickly drop to <2% (obscurity).

Rand Paul is done.

Too bad, because he was the only GOP Prez candidate who seemed interested in restoring the Constitution.




  

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Jeff
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #8 - Jan 12th, 2016 at 9:07am
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Maybe total disgust with the TwoParty ticket will get Gary Johnson elected. Don't count on it.
Try to elect non-TwoParty shills to Congress.
We really need Congress to do what they are supposed to do if we end up with Emperor Donald or Comrade Dear Leader Bernie. (I'm assuming Hillary will be indicted, so we won't have to worry about Comrade Dear Leader Hillary...).
That all assumes that Barack the First won't just finish up collapsing the economy, destroying evil capitalism and activating all those nifty "emergency" powers Congress "gave" him.
Interesting times.
  

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Jack Decker
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Re: The postmortem on the Rand Paul campaign
Reply #9 - Jan 12th, 2016 at 2:40pm
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What seems odd to me is that the Rand Paul campaign seems to not have any presence here on this forum.  None.
  
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