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BobK71
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Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Jun 8th, 2018 at 10:29am
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Today's inspiration comes from this piece about how antagonistic nationalism, a new method of mass communications, hard-ball international politics, etc. produced a terrible war, and might produce another.

I would like to look even deeper.

While the 1900s were at the end of the First Age of Globalization, we can argue that we're near the end of the Second.  Both periods of globalization amount to efforts by a declining global empire to continue to prop up the value of its issued money by shifting production to cheap-labor countries.  If you can buy cheap goods with paper pound sterling or dollars, you have confidence in the monies' value.

And the blow-back from that effort was the rise of a less-than-friendly rival power.  Back then, it was Germany.  Today it's China.

Antagonistic nationalism is a natural product of the end of a financial bubble.  While the elites of all countries jointly profited during the growth phase of globalization, the later fragility of the bubble meant these elites must now share the pain.  How to allocate pain becomes an endless international struggle, as witnessed by surface-level stories of conflicts over North Korea, the South China Sea, trade wars, etc.

Which brings us to the mass media and its reportage of reality, or lack thereof.  Before World War I, hatred of imperial Germany was fanned pretty effectively by a British media tycoon.  In this thought-provoking piece investor philosopher Ben Hunt argues that we humans are hard-wired to happily accept simplifying narratives of reality (that he calls 'memes' and 'the common-knowledge game.')  And the elites know this.  (This would explain why the US media covered the Russian/Assad atrocities in Syria more readily than the US/Saudi ones in Yemen at the same time.)

It's perhaps not surprising that the mass media and national rivalries reinforce each other to bring about a toxic cocktail of prewar conditions.

In my opinion, all of this is just politics and deception that are fueled by an increasingly fragile global financial bubble.  I would not get emotionally attached to the argument of any set of elites.  Let them fight their battles but keep us out of the war.  In the end, as they always say, just follow the money, and you'll find the truth.
  
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #1 - Jun 8th, 2018 at 12:02pm
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BobK71 wrote on Jun 8th, 2018 at 10:29am:
Today's inspiration comes from this piece about how antagonistic nationalism, a new method of mass communications, hard-ball international politics, etc. produced a terrible war, and might produce another.

I would like to look even deeper.

While the 1900s were at the end of the First Age of Globalization, we can argue that we're near the end of the Second.  Both periods of globalization amount to efforts by a declining global empire to continue to prop up the value of its issued money by shifting production to cheap-labor countries.  If you can buy cheap goods with paper pound sterling or dollars, you have confidence in the monies' value.

And the blow-back from that effort was the rise of a less-than-friendly rival power.  Back then, it was Germany.  Today it's China.

Antagonistic nationalism is a natural product of the end of a financial bubble.  While the elites of all countries jointly profited during the growth phase of globalization, the later fragility of the bubble meant these elites must now share the pain.  How to allocate pain becomes an endless international struggle, as witnessed by surface-level stories of conflicts over North Korea, the South China Sea, trade wars, etc.

Which brings us to the mass media and its reportage of reality, or lack thereof.  Before World War I, hatred of imperial Germany was fanned pretty effectively by a British media tycoon.  In this thought-provoking piece investor philosopher Ben Hunt argues that we humans are hard-wired to happily accept simplifying narratives of reality (that he calls 'memes' and 'the common-knowledge game.')  And the elites know this.  (This would explain why the US media covered the Russian/Assad atrocities in Syria more readily than the US/Saudi ones in Yemen at the same time.)

It's perhaps not surprising that the mass media and national rivalries reinforce each other to bring about a toxic cocktail of prewar conditions.

In my opinion, all of this is just politics and deception that are fueled by an increasingly fragile global financial bubble.  I would not get emotionally attached to the argument of any set of elites.  Let them fight their battles but keep us out of the war.  In the end, as they always say, just follow the money, and you'll find the truth.


Let's spell it out clearly Bob. Trump's nationalism is the US attempt to boost it's economy through economic force against smaller and less powerful countries. Powerful in the sense that they don't have the economic clout that the US has.

And then let's touch on the fact that many other countries including a lot of US allies are reacting by joining forces against Germany the US.

It won't be successful on the part of the US but it may not be carried on long enough to result in a military war. Trump might be stopped by the American people in time or he may be stopped by the deep state. Then perhaps there will be enough Americans left to change course.

That will require the US to bite the bullet because other nations are saying they want their piece of the pie. And then of course, no nation has the power in the 21st. century to take a chance on being able to win a world war, on account of nuclear weapons and the MAD factor.

The sides are being drawn no doubt. But the US under Trump is not going to be able to keep long term alliances together. Europe is turning to China and Russia is firmly aligned with China.

Trump must be eliminated from the equation before it's too late. I think that by the end of Trump's 4 year term the US will have chosen it's course and there will be no turning back on account of few allies left to turn to. Then the American people might get rid of Trump but they will turn to the same politics because of it being too late to change course. Anti-American feelings will be too solidified.

That's my way of thinking out your comments and the article you linked to, which were nothing more than suggestive of the possibility of another world war.

As to what is happening right now? Americans and even libertarians are moving closer to supporting Trump's nationalism. 'That's' illustrative of how the people are slowly moved to support war. That's the similarity that needs to be recognized and stopped by some faction with the power to do it. Does that kind of political influence even exisst in the US anymore?
  
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #2 - Jun 8th, 2018 at 12:53pm
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BobK71 wrote on Jun 8th, 2018 at 10:29am:
  Both periods of globalization amount to efforts by a declining global empire to continue to prop up the value of its issued money by shifting production to cheap-labor countries.  If you can buy cheap goods with paper pound sterling or dollars, you have confidence in the monies' value.

No world reserve currency lasts forever - they all eventually collapse from over-printing.

The USD is long overdue for a collapse. 

"A dollar is a receipt for a claim check on an IOU." - Mike Maloney

"We have gold because we can not trust our governments". - President Herbert Hoover


I recommend a 2-month supply of the following;

• Beans
• Bullets
• Booze
• Bullion (gold or silver)
• Batteries
• Butt-wipes

Smiley
  
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #3 - Jun 8th, 2018 at 1:14pm
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BobK, This is right on topic. G6+ 1?

https://www.rt.com/news/429147-g7-trump-macron-trade-war/

I know that Canada has held back for 30 days from duplicating and equalling US trade sanctions. This is being criticized by the right in Canada so there's little doubt on what is being planned and there will be no real political opposition to  it by Canadians.

The one month period is Trudeau's attempt to allow time for cooler heads to prevail in the US. And as always, there's a distinct chance that Trump will flipflop again.

The G7 that's happening right now is going to send a pretty loud message to your country.

This is not the US that has lost all sense of reality, this is Trump. Trump definitely should have lots of security spooks watching his back. Maybe the question should be, will they turn a blind eye?

Short term this is going to hurt Canada vis a vis free trade. Long term I think we're predicting the same consequences.
  
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #4 - Jun 8th, 2018 at 4:55pm
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BobK71 wrote on Jun 8th, 2018 at 10:29am:
In the end, as they always say, just follow the money, and you'll find the truth.
I never heard that. It sounds absurd. Following money will often lead you to corruption of some sort... Or outright thieves.

Isn't that why our current government hides the money trails?
  
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BobK71
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #5 - Jun 11th, 2018 at 12:18pm
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Let's spell it out clearly Bob. Trump's nationalism is the US attempt to boost it's economy through economic force against smaller and less powerful countries. Powerful in the sense that they don't have the economic clout that the US has.

And then let's touch on the fact that many other countries including a lot of US allies are reacting by joining forces against Germany the US.


The 'economic clout' is the power to print paper or create bits that the world regards as valuable.  The US has not much real economic power left.  We import more than export, even using the prevailing exchange rates that over-value the dollar through imperial machinations.  (In the previous empire, Britain started losing real economic leadership around 1850.)

I theorize Trump's economic aggressiveness as serving the goals of the deep state in his own unique way.  His election was a problem for the deep state, which is now turning it into a strength.  He is being used as a henchman to intimidate other countries into line (and we don't know how many behind-the-scenes deals are being made in exchange for Trump to ease up his pressure.)  If he succeeds, the empire gets its way and the deep state is happy.  If, somehow, something breaks, we can all blame the disaster on Trump, and America will easily disown him.

Already, we hear Macron carefully separating Trump from America.  (Macron came literally out of the international banking elites.)
  
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BobK71
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #6 - Jun 11th, 2018 at 12:28pm
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SkyChief wrote on Jun 8th, 2018 at 12:53pm:
No world reserve currency lasts forever - they all eventually collapse from over-printing.

The USD is long overdue for a collapse. 

"A dollar is a receipt for a claim check on an IOU." - Mike Maloney

"We have gold because we can not trust our governments". - President Herbert Hoover


I recommend a 2-month supply of the following;

• Beans
• Bullets
• Booze
• Bullion (gold or silver)
• Batteries
• Butt-wipes

Smiley


You don't have to buy butt-wipes if you have savings.  Smiley

When the Dutch lost reserve currency status, the bubble was taken over by Britain. When Britain lost it, the bubble was taken over by the US.

Since India is not yet capable of taking over the bubble (but watch out for a new 'rising nation' narrative in the next few decades!)  So the USD band must play on, somehow.

Since nuclear war is not survivable and proxy wars are being aggressively countered by Russia and China, what is most likely to happen will be devaluation.

Devaluation will be the major support that helps dull the other areas of pain from what will have to be a managed financial crash.
  
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #7 - Jun 11th, 2018 at 12:39pm
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BobK71 wrote on Jun 11th, 2018 at 12:28pm:
You don't have to buy butt-wipes if you have savings.  Smiley

Bob, when the trucks stop running, and the store shelves are empty, butt-wipes will be worth their weight in gold.   Pages torn out of an old Sears catalog just won't cut it anymore.   Smiley
  
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BobK71
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #8 - Jun 12th, 2018 at 4:47pm
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SkyChief wrote on Jun 11th, 2018 at 12:39pm:
Bob, when the trucks stop running, and the store shelves are empty, butt-wipes will be worth their weight in gold.   Pages torn out of an old Sears catalog just won't cut it anymore.   Smiley


I mean savings in Federal Reserve notes.  Granted, they're not very good, but will do...

Not to do a one-upsmanship but to say something truly from the heart, we don't really need toilet paper.  If you eat only the foods we evolved to eat, fruits, veggies, nuts, and whole grains, you'll find you don't need toilet paper.  This can alternatively be proved by the fact that we didn't evolve rolls of toilet paper hanging from our waist.

  
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Re: Our Similarity with the Pre-WWI Period
Reply #9 - Jun 12th, 2018 at 5:05pm
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BobK, This is right on topic. G6+ 1?

https://www.rt.com/news/429147-g7-trump-macron-trade-war/

I know that Canada has held back for 30 days from duplicating and equalling US trade sanctions. This is being criticized by the right in Canada so there's little doubt on what is being planned and there will be no real political opposition to  it by Canadians.

The one month period is Trudeau's attempt to allow time for cooler heads to prevail in the US. And as always, there's a distinct chance that Trump will flipflop again.

The G7 that's happening right now is going to send a pretty loud message to your country.

This is not the US that has lost all sense of reality, this is Trump. Trump definitely should have lots of security spooks watching his back. Maybe the question should be, will they turn a blind eye?

Short term this is going to hurt Canada vis a vis free trade. Long term I think we're predicting the same consequences.


[Slight sarcasm on]

It's amazing, even the US President and his advisors don't seem to understand, the US is *supposed* to run a trade deficit.  The rest of the world is supposed to run a trade surplus.  That is how the US extracts real benefits from the rest of the world, by giving them money we print.

That is how the imperial system works.  If our money didn't flood out into the world, it can't be the world reserve currency.  If it wasn't the world reserve currency, we couldn't afford a military that forces the world to make sure this money has value.

You see?  It's circular but perfectly logical.  Of course, it won't last forever, but that's not a problem for today's crowd!
  
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