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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) China's View of Trump's Trade War! (Read 860 times)
SkyChief
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #60 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:00pm
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Jeff wrote on Aug 7th, 2018 at 5:01pm:
It's probably a good idea to set some sort of gold/silver exchange ratio. Maybe not.

Only the ETF markets can determine the gold/silver exchange ratio. One thing is for certain - it will never be static.

For a very long time, the gold/silver ratio was 16:1  -  16 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.

The ratio began to fluctuate wildly when FDR outlawed physical gold in 1933. The ratio shot up to 96:1 during WW II, and its been a wild ride ever since. 

Today, it's @ 79:1, which suggests that gold is greatly overvalued, or silver is greatly undervalued.  In either case, the smart money is on silver.
  
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Jeff
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #61 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:36pm
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SkyChief wrote on Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:00pm:
Only the ETF markets can determine the gold/silver exchange ratio. One thing is for certain - it will never be static.

For a very long time, the gold/silver ratio was 16:1  -  16 ounces of silver for 1 ounce of gold.

The ratio began to fluctuate wildly when FDR outlawed physical gold in 1933. The ratio shot up to 96:1 during WW II, and its been a wild ride ever since. 

Today, it's @ 79:1, which suggests that gold is greatly overvalued, or silver is greatly undervalued.  In either case, the smart money is on silver.
The fact that government Central Banks and government lawmakers are heavily involved means that actual markets are not determining the values or ratios. That's why they are so skewed.

As has been the case for my entire life, governments have interfered in the market for gold, sometimes more obviously than others.
  
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SicklersDink
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #62 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:40pm
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SkyChief wrote on Aug 7th, 2018 at 12:41pm:
All true, but you're missing the critical flaw of Nixon's ill-fated decision to end the dollar's convertibility to gold:

The Banks could print money at will, without having gold reserves.  This led to runaway National Debt.

http://zfacts.com/sites/all/files/image/econ/Brill-nom-US-national-debt.gif


Was it socially responsible capitalism that should be credited with that levelling off in the Clinton years?
  
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Jeff
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #63 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:42pm
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Was it socially responsible capitalism that should be credited with that levelling off in the Clinton years?
No, Congress actually reigned in spending a little and Clinton agreed, and I think Alan Greenspan was Fed Chairman and the Fed was pretending we were on a gold standard for a while.
  
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SicklersDink
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #64 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:42pm
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SkyChief wrote on Aug 7th, 2018 at 12:41pm:
All true, but you're missing the critical flaw of Nixon's ill-fated decision to end the dollar's convertibility to gold:

The Banks could print money at will, without having gold reserves.  This led to runaway National Debt.

http://zfacts.com/sites/all/files/image/econ/Brill-nom-US-national-debt.gif


Was it socially responsible capitalism that should be credited with that levelling off in the Clinton years?
  
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Jeff
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #65 - Aug 7th, 2018 at 6:48pm
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Was it socially responsible capitalism that should be credited with that levelling off in the Clinton years?
What is the mechanism that you propose was used that was "socially responsible" that was responsible for the leveling that occurred?


  
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BobK71
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #66 - Aug 8th, 2018 at 8:55am
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JW wrote on Aug 7th, 2018 at 4:23pm:
So I have been reading a lot lately about the 14th Century, and France.  They didn't use much Gold back then.  But they had coinage and trade.  Oddly, to us, the wages for the entire century were pretty much fixed.  Three generations, no pay increase. 

For the elites; after the Black Death wiped out half the peasants, the manor class did not want to go without.  The King did not reduce the royal tithes.  So everyone just doubled the taxes owed by the serfs (who really were slaves since quitting the employ of your manor house carried a death sentence).  So - half your family wiped out, just pay double the taxes - problem solved.  The merchant and manufacturing classes were so small at the time that it was not an option to go get a job.  It took a lifetime of work to apprentice to be a cabinet maker.  Brigantry (mercenaries) were a common way for some men to make more money.  The lords almost never paid the agreed wages, but you sometimes got some spoils to make up for it.  Of course, your mercenary career will end in battle when your side loses, so you can't spend your gains.

What works, and still works, is to just become a member of the elite!  Problem solved.


Thanks for a great story.  We invest power in these elites for the purpose of protecting rights to life and property, and it seems all they do is abuse it.  Though today's abuse is more subtle and often cloaked in niceties called 'extra services.'

Gold was never the major form of money back then; silver was.  The penny, struck in England, was one of the famous silver coins of Europe.  I'm sure it's worth a bit more than a penny these days!  The reason gold has been considered 'more monetary' than silver over the last century and a half was simply that gold was concentrated in Britain by accident, and the British elites had the clout in the mid-to-late 19th century to get the entire Western world to throw silver out of the monetary system.  (The resulting economic pain from deflation in the US was the cause of William Jennings Bryan's 'cross of gold' speech during the 1896 presidential election -- he lost.)

But believe it or not, I like Hegel's idea that the march of history is on the side of freedom, over the long term.  As long as the elites are more or less fragmented, they must ally with various productive and enlightened elements.  (Such as promoting sound money to some extent, and promoting knowledge and technical know-how.)  This can't help but increase public awareness of tyranny.  The Western elites have also by now developed a fine-tuned system of keeping their power by retreating at the right times, e.g. devaluation of currency against gold.

So not all is lost.  The system might be highly 'fungible' -- for every bit of extra awareness, we gain a bit more freedom and power.  The key is to keep the elites fragmented.  (Four More Years for Trump?!)
  
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BobK71
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #67 - Aug 8th, 2018 at 9:20am
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Was it socially responsible capitalism that should be credited with that levelling off in the Clinton years?


There was an explosion of real wealth in the world during the Clinton years, as China joined the productive world.  And China was happy to work with Washington to 'share this wealth' by pegging the yuan cheap against the dollar and recycling its dollar reserves back to the US.  For America this meant low interest rates, high growth, low inflation and low federal deficits (or even surpluses) at the same time (the so-called Goldilocks economy.)

In terms of expanding the role of government, Clinton talked much but not much happened under his watch, with the exception of helping the business and financial world (the repeal of Glass-Steagall, NAFTA.)
  
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SicklersDink
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #68 - Aug 8th, 2018 at 11:54am
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BobK71 wrote on Aug 8th, 2018 at 9:20am:
There was an explosion of real wealth in the world during the Clinton years, as China joined the productive world.  And China was happy to work with Washington to 'share this wealth' by pegging the yuan cheap against the dollar and recycling its dollar reserves back to the US.  For America this meant low interest rates, high growth, low inflation and low federal deficits (or even surpluses) at the same time (the so-called Goldilocks economy.)


I think the Clinton government enabled those changes to come about for the US.

Quote:
In terms of expanding the role of government, Clinton talked much but not much happened under his watch, with the exception of helping the business and financial world (the repeal of Glass-Steagall, NAFTA.)


Nafta would show huge growth for the US and especially under terms that were (are) very favourable to the US.

Essentially, your argument would have to include the US getting out of Nafta trade agreements and that's the very name of isolationist policy.

I would basically say that any move toward expanding free and fair trade with the rest of the world is the only route left for the US. Trump seems to be determined to take the US in the opposite direction. He's gambling on the US having the economic clout to be able to do so.

Clinton took the opposite approach and I think the graph shows the outcome.
  
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Jeff
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Re: China's View of Trump's Trade War!
Reply #69 - Aug 8th, 2018 at 4:22pm
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I would basically say that any move toward expanding free and fair trade with the rest of the world is the only route left for the US. Trump seems to be determined to take the US in the opposite direction. He's gambling on the US having the economic clout to be able to do so.

Clinton took the opposite approach and I think the graph shows the outcome.
You're in some fantasy world where Clinton was in charge of the economy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Obama was an empty suit, he didn't even understand economics... he spent his time in College studying the Constitution Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy :

Trump probably understands the economics pretty well, but thinks that, as President, he gets to control the economy. Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Since we're speaking of Trump, could it be true that no one expected that he might have had shady dealings with shady people during the time he was a crony?
  
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