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The Opposition
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A Fifth of a Percent?!
Aug 26th, 2018 at 8:36pm
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So, only a fifth of a percent of applicants are good enough for the job? Holy leaping lepers!

https://hbr.org/2018/08/what-to-do-when-you-realize-you-made-a-bad-hire
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If it hasn’t happened to you yet, consider yourself lucky, because only 19% of new hires are considered fully successful, according to a frequently cited study, and by the 18-month point 46% are deemed failures.


https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/lever-...
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Employers are hiring about one in every 100 candidates,


Only 20% of hires are successes and they're only hiring one percent of people to begin with? So only .2% - a fifth of a percent - of people are good enough for your average job?! (If this seems perfectly reasonable to you, please don't post.)

There are a couple of explanations for this. I'll go through them from what I perceive as least likely first, to most likely last. So this means I don't really believe capitalism doesn't work, it's just one possible explanation for this mess.

1. Capitalism doesn't work.
Employers are incapable of picking good candidates, and the metrics they favour because those metrics won on the free market are more likely to generate bad candidates than good ones.
The workplace doesn't work, the environment increasingly making sure good workers are discarded for social butterflies, a spiral reaction forcing more and more effort to be removed from work and devoted to the social, then the employers wonder where their profits went. They hyper-selected only the very best people! Well, they hyper-selected the people who seemed the best, meaning they threw out good workers and hired people who were great at making themselves seem great.

2. Population Explosion.
Capitalism does work in a balanced system, but the increasing population of propertyless workers is having a negative effect on employee selection. (You can trace this one back to welfare subsidising babies the economy has no place for.)
Basically, employers become cats.
The employers hyper-select even when they don't have to, and since they have a hundred people to pick from for any one job, it doesn't matter if nine out of ten of their metrics are nonsense. If just one is even slightly right, they get a slightly better candidate, and they hyper-select harder, because they see it benefits them just slightly and they can afford to do so.

3. Dysgenics
This can also be thrown squarely on the shoulders of welfare if true.
I don't need to say that before welfare, we didn't have this problem to this degree. If it's actually true that only a fifth of a percent of people are good enough for your average job, something has changed, and maybe it's the people.
If businesses aren't getting ridiculously more selective unnecessarily, then it's a certainty that the people are getting worse.
If it's not dysgenics, maybe it's education.

4. Cronyism.
First, the businesses can't really fail because the big guys are propped up and any potential competition pushed into the ground headfirst by mountains of artificial entry barriers. No one wants to believe what they do doesn't matter, so they invent magic metrics that are the reason they stay on top.
Not just in government, but in the private sector, too.
Those jumped-up sociology graduates who the colleges told were worth what they paid for their education need something to do, right? Well, they busy themselves generating these horrible metrics, and for the reasons mentioned in 2, it doesn't hurt the businesses.

I mean, if you have ten apples, and you throw out any that look weird, any that have a spot, or any that aren't shiny and perfect, that might hurt you.

But if you have ten thousand apples, it doesn't really matter why you're throwing away 99.8% of them. You could hire a witch to pick for you and you'd still be fine. You'll still have enough to live.
  

This moral relativism of yours is exactly what lets government take this freedom, then that freedom, until we have lost them all.
-SnarkySack
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Jeff
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #1 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 9:04am
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The Opposition wrote on Aug 26th, 2018 at 8:36pm:
So, only a fifth of a percent of applicants are good enough for the job? Holy leaping lepers!

https://hbr.org/2018/08/what-to-do-when-you-realize-you-made-a-bad-hire

https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/talent-acquisition/pages/lever-...

Only 20% of hires are successes and they're only hiring one percent of people to begin with? So only .2% - a fifth of a percent - of people are good enough for your average job?! (If this seems perfectly reasonable to you, please don't post.)

There are a couple of explanations for this. I'll go through them from what I perceive as least likely first, to most likely last. So this means I don't really believe capitalism doesn't work, it's just one possible explanation for this mess.

1. Capitalism doesn't work.
Employers are incapable of picking good candidates, and the metrics they favour because those metrics won on the free market are more likely to generate bad candidates than good ones.
The workplace doesn't work, the environment increasingly making sure good workers are discarded for social butterflies, a spiral reaction forcing more and more effort to be removed from work and devoted to the social, then the employers wonder where their profits went. They hyper-selected only the very best people! Well, they hyper-selected the people who seemed the best, meaning they threw out good workers and hired people who were great at making themselves seem great.

2. Population Explosion.
Capitalism does work in a balanced system, but the increasing population of propertyless workers is having a negative effect on employee selection. (You can trace this one back to welfare subsidising babies the economy has no place for.)
Basically, employers become cats.
The employers hyper-select even when they don't have to, and since they have a hundred people to pick from for any one job, it doesn't matter if nine out of ten of their metrics are nonsense. If just one is even slightly right, they get a slightly better candidate, and they hyper-select harder, because they see it benefits them just slightly and they can afford to do so.

3. Dysgenics
This can also be thrown squarely on the shoulders of welfare if true.
I don't need to say that before welfare, we didn't have this problem to this degree. If it's actually true that only a fifth of a percent of people are good enough for your average job, something has changed, and maybe it's the people.
If businesses aren't getting ridiculously more selective unnecessarily, then it's a certainty that the people are getting worse.
If it's not dysgenics, maybe it's education.

4. Cronyism.
First, the businesses can't really fail because the big guys are propped up and any potential competition pushed into the ground headfirst by mountains of artificial entry barriers. No one wants to believe what they do doesn't matter, so they invent magic metrics that are the reason they stay on top.
Not just in government, but in the private sector, too.
Those jumped-up sociology graduates who the colleges told were worth what they paid for their education need something to do, right? Well, they busy themselves generating these horrible metrics, and for the reasons mentioned in 2, it doesn't hurt the businesses.

I mean, if you have ten apples, and you throw out any that look weird, any that have a spot, or any that aren't shiny and perfect, that might hurt you.

But if you have ten thousand apples, it doesn't really matter why you're throwing away 99.8% of them. You could hire a witch to pick for you and you'd still be fine. You'll still have enough to live.
Of your possible causes, only cronyism is a partial cause.

Most of the problem can be rightly attributed to the welfare state and the false wealth that has been created by the Federal Reserve. "Progressive" education is also a factor, as are minimum wage laws, as are licensing requirements and regulations that make it difficult and expensive to start a business.

People don't want to work because they can get away without working, and people don't bother to do the hard work necessary to learn skills because they can earn a "living wage" doing unskilled work in a factory.

"Progressive" education and our political "leaders" have told a generation of children that everyone has to go to college, and that when they do, even if they graduate with a useless degree, no skills and no work experience, that they are owed a good job with an upper-middle class salary.

As usual, almost all of the problem has been created by government trying to make things better.
  
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SkyChief
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #2 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 11:19am
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Jeff wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 9:04am:
As usual, almost all of the problem has been created by government trying to make things better.

Ah, the irony of it!

My wife and I used to own a gym which specialized in "wellness" programs.  We would get very obese people down to a target weight (usually specified by an MD) within an agreed time-frame.

We couldn't hire the employees who were best qualified to manage our gym because of government requirements for hiring practices

The person we wanted to manage the gym was an "undocumented" - she did not have a green card or a SSN.

So we were forced to hire a less qualified person who eventually embezzled close to $15k over a 2.5 year period.   Angry 
  
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Jeff
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #3 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 5:50pm
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SkyChief wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 11:19am:
We couldn't hire the employees who were best qualified to manage our gym because of government requirements for hiring practices

The person we wanted to manage the gym was an "undocumented" - she did not have a green card or a SSN.

So we were forced to hire a less qualified person who eventually embezzled close to $15k over a 2.5 year period.   Angry 
You should have looked around more, or managed the gym yourself, or at least paid attention to the books, or hired a CPA part time to keep track of the money for you... Duh.

Are you saying there are no qualified honest reliable managers in Kalifornia other than non-citizens?

You didn't know any reliable young person willing to learn the job under your guidance?

Oh well...
  
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SkyChief
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #4 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 7:23pm
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Jeff wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 5:50pm:
Are you saying there are no qualified honest reliable managers in Kalifornia other than non-citizens?

No. I'm saying being forced to comply with stupid government regulations prevented us from hiring the right person for the job.

Government passes stupid Laws and force us to comply via coercion.

  
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The Opposition
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #5 - Aug 27th, 2018 at 10:03pm
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Jeff wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 5:50pm:
Are you saying there are no qualified honest reliable managers in Kalifornia other than non-citizens?


Personally I wouldn't be surprised. It's almost like what everyone is always saying is true, and for whatever reason, Americans just can't compete on the free market.

A fifth of a percent. That's how many Americans are good enough for your average job.
  

This moral relativism of yours is exactly what lets government take this freedom, then that freedom, until we have lost them all.
-SnarkySack
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Jeff
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #6 - Aug 28th, 2018 at 8:06am
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The Opposition wrote on Aug 27th, 2018 at 10:03pm:
A fifth of a percent. That's how many Americans are good enough for your average job.
One out of 100 is 1% lizard, but that isn't even saying what you are implying. It's only saying that employers on average take applications from 100 people before they choose which one to hire. That doesn't mean the other 99 applicants were unqualified (although some of them surely are), it just means companies are willing to look at a lot of applicants while trying to get the best new hire available.
  
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The Opposition
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #7 - Aug 28th, 2018 at 10:48am
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Jeff wrote on Aug 28th, 2018 at 8:06am:
One out of 100 is 1% lizard, but that isn't even saying what you are implying. It's only saying that employers on average take applications from 100 people before they choose which one to hire. That doesn't mean the other 99 applicants were unqualified (although some of them surely are), it just means companies are willing to look at a lot of applicants while trying to get the best new hire available.


Didn't read the OP.

Out of those 1 in 100, only 19% are considered successes. (And almost 50% are considered failures.)

Most of the ones they're choosing are unqualified.

If capitalism works, and the metrics they use are reasonably accurately choosing the best person in those 100, only a fifth of a percent of Americans are good enough for your average job.
  

This moral relativism of yours is exactly what lets government take this freedom, then that freedom, until we have lost them all.
-SnarkySack
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The Opposition
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #8 - Oct 17th, 2018 at 10:49am
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Needs to be revisited. Seems this didn't sink in for most people.
  

This moral relativism of yours is exactly what lets government take this freedom, then that freedom, until we have lost them all.
-SnarkySack
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Jeff
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Re: A Fifth of a Percent?!
Reply #9 - Oct 17th, 2018 at 5:19pm
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The Opposition wrote on Oct 17th, 2018 at 10:49am:
Needs to be revisited. Seems this didn't sink in for most people.
Want to start with what I said last?

"One out of 100 is 1% lizard, but that isn't even saying what you are implying. It's only saying that employers on average take applications from 100 people before they choose which one to hire. That doesn't mean the other 99 applicants were unqualified (although some of them surely are), it just means companies are willing to look at a lot of applicants while trying to get the best new hire available."
  
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