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kaz
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Will Trump win re-election?
Mar 11th, 2019 at 9:59am
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The Democrats are locking up the coasts, which they already controlled.  But I'm wondering more and more how they are going to win anything in between other than Illinois and possibly Michigan.

A top Democrat PAC has written off Ohio.  Iowa is also losing Democrat money.  I'm not sure where Wisconsin is, but it's another former blue state turned purple.  How is a party run by openly socialist anti-Semitic nut jobs like AOC and the Muslim twins going to win between the coasts?
  

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SkyChief
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #1 - Mar 11th, 2019 at 11:44am
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kaz wrote on Mar 11th, 2019 at 9:59am:
  How is a party run by openly socialist anti-Semitic nut jobs like AOC and the Muslim twins going to win between the coasts?

Young atheist voters.  They tend to identify with rebel newcomers like AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, et.al.  Not to mention the "old-guard socialists" like Bernie and Pocahontas.

There's a lot of corruption within the Democratic Party, but younger voters are willing to look past that.
  
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kaz
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #2 - Mar 11th, 2019 at 4:47pm
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SkyChief wrote on Mar 11th, 2019 at 11:44am:
Young atheist voters.  They tend to identify with rebel newcomers like AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, et.al.  Not to mention the "old-guard socialists" like Bernie and Pocahontas.

There's a lot of corruption within the Democratic Party, but younger voters are willing to look past that.


Agreed, but you didn't address my point.  You live on the coast.  The midwest is far more blue collar Democrat.  They think AOC is a freak like the rest of us do
  

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SkyChief
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #3 - Mar 11th, 2019 at 5:32pm
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kaz wrote on Mar 11th, 2019 at 4:47pm:
Agreed, but you didn't address my point.  You live on the coast.  The midwest is far more blue collar Democrat.  They think AOC is a freak like the rest of us do

Agreed. 

But the coasts have (the radical Berkeley leftists and therefore) control of the electoral college  (California, NY, Florida). 

Also, Trump has lost a lot of Congress republicans and his "base" is dwindling fast.

I believe the dems will take the Senate in 2020.
  
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kaz
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #4 - Mar 12th, 2019 at 9:09am
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SkyChief wrote on Mar 11th, 2019 at 5:32pm:
Agreed. 

But the coasts have (the radical Berkeley leftists and therefore) control of the electoral college  (California, NY, Florida). 

Also, Trump has lost a lot of Congress republicans and his "base" is dwindling fast.

I believe the dems will take the Senate in 2020. 


So you're sticking with that the Democrats won't lose anyone they have now, they'll retake midwest Democrat States who left them in the last election because they were going to far left and they'll continue to make inroads into leans red States.  I doubt that.  If you were a Democrat strategist, they'd have gone off the deep end left a long time ago.

You haven't looked at a 2020 map of open Senate seats, have you?
  

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ahhell
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #5 - Mar 12th, 2019 at 9:26am
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To answer the original question, probably, unless the Dems can silence the likes of AOC, et al.  There extremist rhetoric will turn off a lot of voters.  The 10% of Republicans who want to ditch Trump won't vote for them. They will stay home or even vote for a moderate Dem, but they will vote for Trump to keep Bernie or Warren out.   



SkyChief wrote on Mar 11th, 2019 at 11:44am:
Young atheist voters.  They tend to identify with rebel newcomers like AOC, Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar, et.al.  Not to mention the "old-guard socialists" like Bernie and Pocahontas.

There's a lot of corruption within the Democratic Party, but younger voters are willing to look past that.
Even most of the recently elected younger dems aren't that far left.  AOC, Omar, Tlaib get all the press, primarily because they don't fit in and are extremists.  Most Dem voters are not that extreme and the current socialist wave* is not going to get them to the polls in the in general election especially if it comes after a very divisive primary thats shaping up.


Keep in mind, in this time in 2015, Guiliani was the front runner in the GOP.  Who ever leads the polls now, doesn't matter. 


*socialist wave is meant ironically, there isn't actually any such thing, its a half dozen or so populists.
edited for clarity.
« Last Edit: Mar 12th, 2019 at 10:54am by ahhell »  
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kaz
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #6 - Mar 12th, 2019 at 9:30am
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ahhell wrote on Mar 12th, 2019 at 9:26am:
To answer the original question, probably, unless the Dems can silence the likes of AOC, et al.  There extremist rhetoric will turn off a lot of voters.  The 10% of Republicans who want to ditch Trump won't vote for them. They stay home or even vote for a moderate Dem, they'll vote for Trump to keep Bernie or Warren out


Ironic how for both parties, their biggest enemy is themselves
  

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ahhell
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #7 - Mar 12th, 2019 at 10:56am
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kaz wrote on Mar 12th, 2019 at 9:30am:
Ironic how for both parties, their biggest enemy is themselves
I'm not sure its ironic.  Any industry that had a duopoly would find itself in that position.
  
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Jeff
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #8 - Mar 12th, 2019 at 12:34pm
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This is a long read, but pertinent to the topic I think:

https://americanmind.org/essays/our-revolutions-logic/

From the essay:

"This forced the recognition that there exists a remarkably uniform, bipartisan, Progressive ruling class; that it includes, most of the bureaucracies of federal and state governments, the judiciary, the educational establishment, the media, as well as major corporate officials; that it had separated itself socially, morally, and politically from the rest of society, whose commanding heights it monopolized; above all that it has contempt for the rest of America, and that ordinary Americans have no means of persuading this class of anything, because they don’t count."

This also explains much:

https://pjmedia.com/trending/dancing-on-a-powder-keg/
  
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SkyChief
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Re: Will Trump win re-election?
Reply #9 - Mar 12th, 2019 at 1:35pm
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ahhell wrote on Mar 12th, 2019 at 9:26am:
Keep in mind, in this time in 2015, Guiliani was the front runner in the GOP.  Who ever leads the polls now, doesn't matter. 


Fair point.   Also, the field (of 22 contenders) will likely double by the time caucuses come. 
  
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