Libertarian's Forum
Libertarian Forum to discuss politics and free market economics.
Libertarian's ForumLibertarian's ForumFreedom Forum › Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 ... 8 Send TopicPrint
Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Why the market/economy isn't crashing (Read 702 times)
SkyChief
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 13105
Location: California Coast
Joined: Aug 18th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #30 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:08pm
Print Post  
Jeff wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 5:23pm:
It's common for everybody to carry more debt when money is cheap, and the Fed has been keeping money cheap, and plentiful.

What's the business plan going forward? Hope for enough profit to pay off the loans?

The world is teetering on the brink of economic collapse.

All stability in world markets is imagined - it is based on purely on confidence.   A butterfly fart could send it in a tail-spin.  Bubbles everywhere you look.    I heard the DJI hit 29,000 yesterday!   Yippee!!!!   Smiley   But not yippeee.   Embarrassed   

A wild, out-of-control stock market is NOT a sign of market stability.  It's not even a reliable indicator for growth. 

Trading in paper (ETF) gold and silver (GLD, SLV) artificially supressed the prices of these metals, and creates the illusion that the ETFs have value. 

They don't.   They only appear to have value.  In the end, these ETF metals are only made of paper - the same stuff we wipe our asses with after taking a dump.   Huh

I want the stock market to do well - stocks are a part of my portfolio.  It's those crazy 400 - point swings up and down that I cringe when I see them.  In a healthy market we would never see more than 30 or 40 points difference open to close.

  

Governments will always devise ways to deprive an honest man of his money or property, and claim that it's legal.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Jeff
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 53543
Location: USA
Joined: Feb 26th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #31 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:08pm
Print Post  
kaz wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 6:59pm:
I'm not going to claim the Chief's strategy of making an accurate prediction on that.
You said you would not live to see it. How long do you predict you'll live?

Edit: Use standard current actuarial assumptions, thanks. Smiley
  

"Free hate speech"
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Jeff
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 53543
Location: USA
Joined: Feb 26th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #32 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:11pm
Print Post  
SkyChief wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:08pm:
The world is teetering on the brink of economic collapse.



Trading in paper (ETF) gold and silver (GLD, SLV) artificially supressed the prices of these metals, and creates the illusion that the ETFs have value. 

They don't.   They only appear to have value.  In the end, these ETF metals are only made of paper - the same stuff we wipe our asses with after taking a dump.   Huh

Exactly! Metals made of paper...

What?

Metals made of toilet paper? Are you sure? Is this some new technology?
  

"Free hate speech"
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
SkyChief
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 13105
Location: California Coast
Joined: Aug 18th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #33 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:26pm
Print Post  
Jeff wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:11pm:
Metals made of paper... What?

Metals made of toilet paper? Are you sure? Is this some new technology?

Commodity ETF trading has been around for quite a while, now .  It allows people to trade gold and silver without ever touching the stuff.

But it's just an illusion.  The shares they have don't represent any metal assets. They're just numbers written on pieces of paper.

There are various types of ETFs available to investors that can be used for income generation, speculation, price increases, and to hedge or partly offset risk in an investor's portfolio.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/etf.asp
  

Governments will always devise ways to deprive an honest man of his money or property, and claim that it's legal.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Jeff
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 53543
Location: USA
Joined: Feb 26th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #34 - Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:46pm
Print Post  
SkyChief wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:26pm:
Commodity ETF trading has been around for quite a while, now .  It allows people to trade gold and silver without ever touching the stuff.

But it's just an illusion.  The shares they have don't represent any metal assets.
Obviously, you were dealing with disreputable people.
  

"Free hate speech"
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
kaz
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Minarchist

Posts: 10623
Location: Kazmania
Joined: Jun 6th, 2017
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #35 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:02am
Print Post  
SkyChief wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:26pm:
Commodity ETF trading has been around for quite a while, now .  It allows people to trade gold and silver without ever touching the stuff.

But it's just an illusion.  The shares they have don't represent any metal assets. They're just numbers written on pieces of paper


That may or may not be true.  You'd need to read the prospectus.

"commodity ETF is usually focused on either a single commodity—holding it in physical storage—or is focused on investments in futures contracts."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/commodity-etf.asp

Another way to do it would be to invest in the stock of things like gold companies.  Those are a little better than the poor returns you get for owning commodities because at least they are also trying to make a profit.

But if they tell you that they hold physical gold and they don't, that's fraud and they would go to jail

I have three concerns with owning commodities:

1) Terrible returns compared to a diversified stock portfolio

2) Markups.  Particularly for gold coins, which are just a con the markups are so high.  You never even get your money back.  However you buy physical gold, you have to be careful

3) Dubious benefit - When there were 1 million people in the US, sure, Gold would always have value.  But with 330 million people, if the economy collapses, will you even be able to use it?   There are so many people, it could be practically impossible.  Maybe the first time you try to use it, someone shoots you and takes it
  

Contest winner:  I predicted Kaz' meltdown
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Jeff
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 53543
Location: USA
Joined: Feb 26th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #36 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:19am
Print Post  
Jeff wrote on Jan 11th, 2020 at 7:08pm:
You said you would not live to see it. How long do you predict you'll live?

Edit: Use standard current actuarial assumptions, thanks. Smiley
kaz, I'm still interested in how long you think you'll live, so I can have a better idea of when the collapse will come... Thanks. Smiley
  

"Free hate speech"
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Jeff
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Libertarian's Forum

Posts: 53543
Location: USA
Joined: Feb 26th, 2014
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #37 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:25am
Print Post  
kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:02am:
3) Dubious benefit - When there were 1 million people in the US, sure, Gold would always have value.  But with 330 million people, if the economy collapses, will you even be able to use it?
Sure, it's a good store of value, so people have always used it as a medium of exchange.

What do you plan to do, barter?

Hey, I'll trade you some 90% silver coins for your gold bullion coins. The 90% silver will be much more useful in day to day transactions, so I'll charge a premium for them!

Anyway, what about this?

https://www.rt.com/business/476400-worlds-super-rich-hoarding-gold/

From the article:

"The strategic case for owning gold remains strong, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. They point to such factors as political uncertainty, recession fears and other worries among the global elite."
  

"Free hate speech"
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
kaz
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Minarchist

Posts: 10623
Location: Kazmania
Joined: Jun 6th, 2017
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #38 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:50am
Print Post  
Jeff wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:25am:
What do you plan to do, barter?

Hey, I'll trade you some 90% silver coins for your gold bullion coins. The 90% silver will be much more useful in day to day transactions, so I'll charge a premium for them!


I said I'm NOT big on commodities, moron.  Not that I am.  You meant to ask the Chief that question.

I can't believe you said you read and learn, that was classic.  You don't absorb anything.

Are you drunk already or just still hung over from yesterday?
  

Contest winner:  I predicted Kaz' meltdown
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
kaz
Libertarian Freedom Member
*****
Offline

Minarchist

Posts: 10623
Location: Kazmania
Joined: Jun 6th, 2017
Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #39 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:53am
Print Post  
Jeff wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:25am:
https://www.rt.com/business/476400-worlds-super-rich-hoarding-gold/

From the article:

"The strategic case for owning gold remains strong, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs. They point to such factors as political uncertainty, recession fears and other worries among the global elite."


To the super rich, it's all like spending pocket change. So they are going to put anything that could possibly be useful in their bunkers, WTF not?  Actually, the bunkers are the more useful part to them.  I'm sure they stock them with everything they can imagine.

The problem for commodities is the drag on returns for normal people for a portion of their portfolio that does matter.   Also, again the transaction costs can be really high and gold coins are a complete con.  If Chief bought those, he was duped.  I asked him, he wouldn't answer
  

Contest winner:  I predicted Kaz' meltdown
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 ... 8
Send TopicPrint
 
Libertarian's ForumLibertarian's ForumFreedom Forum › Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Libertarian's Forum

Libertarian's Forum Information Rules, Agreement and Privacy Policy