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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Why the market/economy isn't crashing (Read 476 times)
Jeff
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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #40 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:01am
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kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:50am:
I said I'm NOT big on commodities.
Commodities will be very important after the crash... You plan to barter for them? Using what?
  

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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #41 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:03am
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kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:53am:
The problem for commodities is the drag on returns for normal people for a portion of their portfolio that does matter.
If your entire portfolio goes pliff, it doesn't matter much what you had it invested in.
  

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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #42 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:04am
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kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:53am:
Also, again the transaction costs can be really high and gold coins are a complete con.
There are transaction costs involved in buying and selling stocks too. Smiley You didn't know that ? Really?
  

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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #43 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:28am
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kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:02am:
I have three concerns with owning commodities:

1) Terrible returns compared to a diversified stock portfolio

2) Markups.  Particularly for gold coins, which are just a con the markups are so high.  You never even get your money back.  However you buy physical gold, you have to be careful
Exactly.

Metals are a terrible investment.   For getting returns, stocks are the way to go.  The downside to stocks is when the market tumbles, so does your portfolio.

However, Metals are the perfect store of wealth.  They are 100% immune to market swings or currency collapses.  They hold their purchasing power over time.

kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 10:02am:
3) Dubious benefit - When there were 1 million people in the US, sure, Gold would always have value.  But with 330 million people, if the economy collapses, will you even be able to use it?   There are so many people, it could be practically impossible.  Maybe the first time you try to use it, someone shoots you and takes it
Silver and gold will always have value - no matter what size the population is.

Yes, somebody could shoot you and take your gold.    Life, liberty, and property are natural rights, but they must be protected and defended.  If the government can't (or won't) do it, then you must do it.

That's why we have the 2nd Amendment!

  

Governments will always devise ways to deprive an honest man of his money or property, and claim that it's legal.
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kaz
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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #44 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:44am
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Jeff wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:04am:
There are transaction costs involved in buying and selling stocks too. Smiley You didn't know that ? Really?


OMG you're stupid.  Let's go to the video tape ...

"Also, again the transaction costs can be really high and gold coins are a complete con."

I said they can be REALLY HIGH dumb ass, I didn't say there are zero transaction costs for stocks.  Yeah, you know so much because you read.  LOL.  You can't read, just like I said.

Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley Smiley

Jeff, the drooling idiot!!!  Classic.  Classic Jeffing
  

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kaz
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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #45 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:50am
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SkyChief wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:28am:
Exactly.

Metals are a terrible investment.   For getting returns, stocks are the way to go.  The downside to stocks is when the market tumbles, so does your portfolio.

However, Metals are the perfect store of wealth.  They are 100% immune to market swings or currency collapses.  They hold their purchasing power over time.


They tend to hold their purchasing power, but what I pointed out is they don't grow in value.  Gold just lies there.   Stocks create value.   That value beats inflation.  If this is money you need for retirement, it's not growing, it's just holding its value

SkyChief wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:28am:
Silver and gold will always have value - no matter what size the population is.

Yes, somebody could shoot you and take your gold.    Life, liberty, and property are natural rights, but they must be protected and defended.  If the government can't (or won't) do it, then you must do it.

That's why we have the 2nd Amendment!



I didn't say actually it won't hold its value.  It's more the practicality of using commodities in a collapsed economy.  2nd amendment is part of it, but it's a lot more than that.  With so many people around, someone may be following you all the time to find your stash.  You have to get people to engage in barter.   And then they have to deal with it.  I often read that things like toilet paper and liquor are the best currencies in that environment.

So you have a non-economic performing asset with high transaction costs and a dubious benefit.  Unless this is play money for you like it is for the "super rich," I'm not convinced it's worth doing over a broadly diversified portfolio.

Also, as I pointed out, you keep talking about the economy as if one day it's going to implode.  That's just wrong.  We'll see it coming in other indicators.  And those aren't showing that we're anywhere near that.   Again, I agree with the effect you say our policies have.  What I don't see is that currently they are of the scale you think they are.

If you're going to engage in any of this and don't have a bunker to keep it secure, I think you're particularly wasting your time
  

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SkyChief
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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #46 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 12:02pm
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kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:50am:
They tend to hold their purchasing power, but what I pointed out is they don't grow in value.  Gold just lies there.   Stocks create value.   That value beats inflation.  If this is money you need for retirement, it's not growing, it's just holding its value.
Metals are immune to inflation.



kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:50am:
Also, as I pointed out, you keep talking about the economy as if one day it's going to implode.  That's just wrong. 
You're whistling past the graveyard, kaz.

The indicators I'm looking at all point to a collapse.  OR a reset.  Either way, many fortunes will be lost, and many fortunes will be created.
  

Governments will always devise ways to deprive an honest man of his money or property, and claim that it's legal.
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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #47 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 12:09pm
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SkyChief wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 12:02pm:
Metals are immune to inflation.


Right, they keep pace with inflation.  They don't beat inflation.  I keep saying that.  Stocks create economic value, they beat inflation.

Like I said, if this is play money to you, fine.  But if it's money you need for retirement, it's a problem, it's not getting real growth in value



SkyChief wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 12:02pm:
You're whistling past the graveyard, kaz.

The indicators I'm looking at all point to a collapse.  OR a reset.  Either way, many fortunes will be lost, and many fortunes will be created.


Again you're just focusing on one facet of what I said, not the overall picture.  I said a lot more than that about the practicality of trying to barter precious metals in a collapsed economy
  

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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #48 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 2:13pm
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kaz wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 11:44am:
"Also, again the transaction costs can be really high and gold coins are a complete con."

"Really high" is relative, and really tells us nothing.

That you think gold coins are a "real con" means nothing to me.
  

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Re: Why the market/economy isn't crashing
Reply #49 - Jan 12th, 2020 at 2:16pm
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SkyChief wrote on Jan 12th, 2020 at 12:02pm:
You're whistling past the graveyard, kaz.


I think kaz buys into the latest iteration of Keynesian theory, New Monetary Theory or whatever they call it.
  

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